Index of Leading Indicators.

The "Index of Leading Indicators" is an American economic index intended to estimate future economic activity. It is a helpful tool that economists use to help them chart financial policy in governmental as well in business arenas. That is all that I have to say about that, after all I am about as far from an economist as Mt. Everest is from the Grand Canyon.

But I have been thinking about leading indicators anyway, because there are leading indicators in church and ministry life as well. And I would like to share with you the reasons for my thinking about these things.

#1: I heard a very well known ministry leader make the following statement not too long ago. "The months of July and August are basically throw away months in a church calendar." The contention was that because of summer vacations and the back to school focus that grabs families during these months, it is basically impossible for a local congregation to make any kind of real advancement. This conclusion was based upon well over forty years in active, successful full time ministry in the local church context. The leading indicators of summertime family activities had led him to this conclusion.

#2: I recently had a discussion with a ministry leader whose ministry has experienced an unusually high level of personnel turnover. Though unavoidable, turnover is almost never welcome and, leading indicators would say, an obstacle to a ministry's smooth operation.

While I understand the value and, yes, even the wisdom present in leading indicators I also recognize that they are still only indicators; knowing that they are not declarations of the way things have to be and are not even necessarily true indicators of the way things presently are. The "U.S. Index of Leading Indicators" has itself incorrectly forecasted at least five recessions that did not occur over the last fifty years.

So, I choose to be mildly optimistic for at least two reasons. The first being what we just considered; indicators are not in and of themselves facts. Reason two: God is bigger than indicators. History is filled with story after story of God trumping indicators. Therefore I can pray with confidence in, "...the God who gives life to the dead (now there is a leading indicator if there ever was one) and calls things that are not as though they were." Romans 4:17

My conclusion is that with God in the mix it surely must be possible for a church to grow in every way that growth can be measured in both July and August, not to mention September - June. And that if He so chooses, even ministries that are experiencing great times of transition can experience an increase in both quality and effectiveness in the mission that God has called them to fulfill.

Finally, I would encourage all of us to respect rather than reject the leading indicators in our lives. Work hard and pray hard that the negative pictures they may paint do not come to fruition and that any blessing they may indicate is on the horizon does indeed flesh out in the end. But reverence, worship and trust God above and beyond all indicators, because only He is fully reliable.

Blessings,
PB